The 2026 AFL season is finally here. After a wild off-season of trades, delistings, and pre-season surprises, we’ve broken down every single club — from premiership favourites to wooden spoon contenders.
No fluff. No marketing speak. Just straight-talking analysis of what each team needs to do to finals, and who’s destined for a rebuild.
Let’s dive in.
📋 Table of Contents
- 1. Adelaide Crows
- 2. Brisbane Lions
- 3. Carlton
- 4. Collingwood
- 5. Essendon
- 6. Fremantle
- 7. Geelong Cats
- 8. Gold Coast Suns
- 9. GWS Giants
- 10. Hawthorn
- 11. Melbourne
- 12. North Melbourne
- 13. Port Adelaide
- 14. Richmond
- 15. St Kilda
- 16. Sydney Swans
- 17. West Coast Eagles
- 18. Western Bulldogs
1. Adelaide Crows
Prediction: Top 8 Contender | Win Expectation: 13-15 wins
Adelaide’s 2025 season showed real promise. Rory Laird is still one of the league’s most underrated midfielders, and Brodie Smith continues to deliver week in, week out. The question mark is their forward line – can they find a consistent goal kicker? If they nail the draft again, they’re genuine top-eight material.
Key Players: Rory Laird, Brodie Smith, Eddie Betts (if returning)
Key Ins: Young midfield recruits
Key Outs: Veteran defenders
The Verdict: The Crows are building something special under Matthew Nicks. Their midfield depth is elite, and if their young forwards take the next step, they’re crashing the top eight. Don’t sleep on Adelaide.
2. Brisbane Lions
Prediction: Premier Favourite | Win Expectation: 16+ wins
Brisbane’s threepeat is on the cards. Their midfield is stacked – Neale, Dunkley, Berryman – and their forward line is lethal. Cameron Rayner is entering his prime, and Harris Andrews is still the best key defender in the comp. If they stay healthy, this could be historic. 16+ wins is the baseline.
Key Players: Lachie Neale, Cameron Rayner, Harris Andrews
Key Ins: Oscar Allen, Sam Draper
Key Outs: Dayne Zorko (retired)
The Verdict: Back-to-back premiers and somehow still getting better? The Lions are Sarge’s Lock for 2026. They’ve lost a few names but brought in Oscar Allen and Sam Draper as key pillars. This lot is scary good.
3. Carlton
Prediction: Top 6 | Win Expectation: 13-14 wins
The Blues are stuck in that frustrating middle ground – too good to miss finals, not quite good enough to win the big one. Cripps and Walsh are absolute guns, but their forward structure needs work. Top six is realistic, but don’t expect them to challenge Brisbane.
Key Players: Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Charlie Curnow
Key Ins: Ollie Hollands (draft)
Key Outs: Zac Williams (retirement)
The Verdict: Carlton’s finals consistency is improving, but can they go the final step? Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh form the league’s best midfield duo. The forward line needs more bite.
4. Collingwood
Prediction: Top 4 | Win Expectation: 14+ wins
The Pies are always there. Craig McRae has them playing consistent, disciplined footy, and Nick Daicos is the best young midfielder in the comp. Scott Pendlebury is still running riot at 38, which is absurd. Their defense is solid, and their midfield depth is elite.
Key Players: Nick Daicos, Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore
Key Ins: None major
Key Outs: None major
The Verdict: Collingwood doesn’t do rebuilds. They reload. Nick Daicos is entering his prime, and their midfield depth is still elite. The question mark is whether their defense can hold up against the top sides.
5. Essendon
Prediction: Top 8 | Win Expectation: 12-14 wins
Essendon’s rebuild is complete. Dylan and Zach Merrett are elite, Andrew McGrath is underrated, and their defense is solid. The question is forward line firepower – can they kick enough to beat the top sides? If they click, they’re a dangerous eight seed.
Key Players: Dylan Merrett, Zach Merrett, Andrew McGrath
Key Ins: Young forward recruits
Key Outs: Veteran ruckmen
The Verdict: The Bombers are finally heading in the right direction. Zach Merrett is a genuine Brownlow contender, and their young core is ready to explode. Finals are the expectation now, not the hope.
6. Fremantle
Prediction: 9th-10th | Win Expectation: 11-12 wins
Fremantle’s midfield is still top six in the league – Fyfe, Brayshaw, Serong, Crowden – but their forward line is a question mark. If they can find a reliable goal kicker, they’re finals bound. Otherwise, they’re fighting for ninth. Justin Cox has them playing structured footy.
Key Players: Nat Fyfe, Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong
Key Ins: Midfield depth
Key Outs: Older forwards
The Verdict: The Dockers are in transition. Nat Fyfe is still a beast, but Father Time is undefeated. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong are elite, but their forward line lacks consistency.
7. Geelong Cats
Prediction: Top 8 | Win Expectation: 12-13 wins
The Cats do it the old-fashioned way – experienced list, disciplined structure, clinical forward line. Dangerfield is still elite, Hawkins is still kicking bags, and Isaac Smith is the bargain of the century. Their defense is aging but experienced.
Key Players: Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Hawkins, Isaac Smith
Key Ins: Young midfielders
Key Outs: Veteran defenders
The Verdict: Geelong’s core is getting older, but they’re still dangerous. Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins are in their twilight years, but the young cats are ready to pounce. Finals regular, but not premiership threat.
8. Gold Coast Suns
Prediction: Dark Horse | Win Expectation: 13-15 wins
Gold Coast’s young core is finally ready. Miller and Anderson are bona fide A-graders, Ben King is kicking bags, and their midfield depth is scary. The question is experience – can they handle the pressure of finals footy? Stuart Dew has them playing exciting footy.
Key Players: Touk Miller, Noah Anderson, Ben King
Key Ins: Experienced defenders
Key Outs: None major
The Verdict: The Suns are everyone’s trendy pick for 2026, and for good reason. Touk Miller is elite, Noah Anderson is a star, and Ben King is a genuine number one forward. If their defense holds up, they’re crashing the eight.
9. GWS Giants
Prediction: 12th-14th | Win Expectation: 8-10 wins
GWS is stuck in rebuild purgatory. They’ve got some nice young players, but they lack the elite talent to compete with the top sides. Greene and Coniglio are still quality, but they’re not carrying a team anymore. Sam Taylor is a genuine All-Australian defender.
Key Players: Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Sam Taylor
Key Ins: Young forwards
Key Outs: Veteran midfielders
The Verdict: The Giants are rebuilding again. Toby Greene is still a gun, but their list lacks depth. Sam Taylor is one of the best key defenders in the comp, but they’re leaking goals at the other end.
10. Hawthorn
Prediction: 8th-10th | Win Expectation: 11-13 wins
The Hawks are the surprise package of 2026. Sam Mitchell has them playing exciting, attacking footy, and their young list is full of potential. Will Day is a genuine future Brownlow medallist. If their defense improves, they’re finals bound.
Key Players: James Patton, Will Day, Luke Breust
Key Ins: Young forwards
Key Outs: Veteran ruckmen
The Verdict: Hawthorn’s rebuild is ahead of schedule. James Patton is still elite, Will Day is a future star, and their young forwards are developing nicely. Finals is the goal, and they’ve got a genuine shot.
11. Melbourne
Prediction: Top 8 | Win Expectation: 12-14 wins
Melbourne’s 2025 was a write-off, but they’re too good to miss finals in 2026. Oliver and Petracic are a devastating duo, Gawn is still the premier ruckman, and their defense is solid. The question is forward line consistency. Simon Goodwin is under pressure.
Key Players: Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracic, Max Gawn
Key Ins: Experienced defenders
Key Outs: None major
The Verdict: The Demons are bouncing back. Clayton Oliver is still the best midfielder in the comp, Christian Petracic is elite, and Max Gawn is still the premier ruckman. After a disappointing 2025, they’re hungry.
12. North Melbourne
Prediction: 15th-16th | Win Expectation: 6-8 wins
The Kangaroos are still rebuilding, but there’s genuine hope. Jy Simpkin is elite, Nick Larkey is a good key forward, and Campbell Coleman is the real deal. They’re not finals ready, but 6-8 wins is realistic. Future is bright.
Key Players: Jy Simpkin, Nick Larkey, Campbell Coleman
Key Ins: Draft recruits
Key Outs: Veterans
The Verdict: North’s young core is developing nicely. Campbell Coleman is a star in the making, and their midfield depth is improving. Not finals yet, but heading in the right direction.
13. Port Adelaide
Prediction: 9th-11th | Win Expectation: 10-12 wins
The Power are frustrating. They’ve got elite talent in Wines and Rozee, but their list construction is questionable. Ken Hinkley has them playing decent footy, but they’re not quite good enough to challenge the top sides. Their defense is solid.
Key Players: Ollie Wines, Connor Rozee, Jasper Pittard
Key Ins: Young forwards
Key Outs: Veteran midfielders
The Verdict: Port Adelaide is in transition. Ollie Wines is still elite, Connor Rozee is a star, but their list lacks depth. Ken Hinkley is under pressure to deliver. Just missing finals.
14. Richmond
Prediction: 11th-13th | Win Expectation: 9-11 wins
The Tigers are stuck in the middle. They’re too good to tank, not good enough to finals. Martin is still capable of moments of brilliance, but he’s 34 now. Vlastuin is a genuine All-Australian, and Chol is the future. 9-11 wins is realistic.
Key Players: Dustin Martin, Nick Vlastuin, Mabior Chol
Key Ins: Young midfielders
Key Outs: Veteran champions
The Verdict: Richmond’s rebuild is ongoing. Dustin Martin is still a gun, but he can’t carry a team anymore. Nick Vlastuin is elite, and Mabior Chol is developing nicely.
15. St Kilda
Prediction: 13th-15th | Win Expectation: 7-9 wins
The Saints are in a tough spot. Steele is a Brownlow contender, Membrey is reliable, but their young list is still developing. Ross Lyon has them playing disciplined, defensive footy, but they’re leaking goals. 7-9 wins is realistic.
Key Players: Jack Steele, Tim Membrey, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Key Ins: Young defenders
Key Outs: Veteran forwards
The Verdict: St Kilda is rebuilding. Jack Steele is still elite, Tim Membrey kicks bags, but their list lacks depth. Ross Lyon has them playing defensive footy, but they’re not scoring enough.
16. Sydney Swans
Prediction: Premier Contender | Win Expectation: 15+ wins
The Swans are scary. Errol Gulden is the best midfielder in the comp when on, Charlie Curnow is a genuine premiership piece, and Logan McDonald is developing into a star. Their forward line is lethal, and their midfield depth is elite. John Longmire has them peaking at the right time.
Key Players: Errol Gulden, Charlie Curnow, Logan McDonald
Key Ins: Charlie Curnow
Key Outs: None major
The Verdict: Sydney’s the obvious bolter for 2026. Dominant home-and-away side in 2024 before a dip last season, but the back half of the year was strong once Errol Gulden returned. Landing Charlie Curnow is enormous.
17. West Coast Eagles
Prediction: Wooden Spoon | Win Expectation: 4-6 wins
West Coast is tanking, and that’s okay. Elijah Taylor is a star in the making, Liam Ryan is quality, but they’re missing too much talent. The question is how many draft picks they can accumulate. Their defense is young and inexperienced.
Key Players: Elijah Taylor, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen
Key Ins: Multiple draft picks
Key Outs: Several veterans
The Verdict: The Eagles are in full rebuild mode. Young talent like Elijah Taylor needs time to develop, and the list lacks experience across half-back. It’s going to be a long season, but the future is bright.
18. Western Bulldogs
Prediction: Dark Horse Top 4 | Win Expectation: 14-15 wins
The Bulldogs are the dark horse for 2026. Bontempelli is still elite – best midfielder in the comp, no questions – and their young forwards are ready to explode. Aaron Naughton is a genuine key forward, Josh Schache is back from injury, and their midfield depth is scary. Luke Beveridge has them primed for a big year.
Key Players: Marcus Bontempelli, Aaron Naughton, Josh Schache
Key Ins: Josh Schache (return from injury)
Key Outs: None
The Verdict: Everyone’s sleeping on the Bulldogs, and that’s exactly where they want to be. Marcus Bontempelli is still the best midfielder in the comp, and their young forwards are ready to explode. If their defense holds up, they’re crashing the top four.
📊 Full Ladder Prediction
| Pos | Team | Prediction | Wins | Key Player |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows | Top 8 Contender | 13-15 | Rory Laird |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions | Premier Favourite | 16+ | Lachie Neale |
| 3 | Carlton | Top 6 | 13-14 | Patrick Cripps |
| 4 | Collingwood | Top 4 | 14+ | Nick Daicos |
| 5 | Essendon | Top 8 | 12-14 | Dylan Merrett |
| 6 | Fremantle | 9th-10th | 11-12 | Nat Fyfe |
| 7 | Geelong Cats | Top 8 | 12-13 | Patrick Dangerfield |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns | Dark Horse | 13-15 | Touk Miller |
| 9 | GWS Giants | 12th-14th | 8-10 | Toby Greene |
| 10 | Hawthorn | 8th-10th | 11-13 | James Patton |
| 11 | Melbourne | Top 8 | 12-14 | Clayton Oliver |
| 12 | North Melbourne | 15th-16th | 6-8 | Jy Simpkin |
| 13 | Port Adelaide | 9th-11th | 10-12 | Ollie Wines |
| 14 | Richmond | 11th-13th | 9-11 | Dustin Martin |
| 15 | St Kilda | 13th-15th | 7-9 | Jack Steele |
| 16 | Sydney Swans | Premier Contender | 15+ | Errol Gulden |
| 17 | West Coast Eagles | Wooden Spoon | 4-6 | Elijah Taylor |
| 18 | Western Bulldogs | Dark Horse Top 4 | 14-15 | Marcus Bontempelli |
🏆 Final Predictions
- Premier: Brisbane Lions
- Runner-up: Sydney Swans
- Wooden Spoon: West Coast Eagles
- Dark Horse: Western Bulldogs
- Breakout Player: Elijah Taylor (West Coast)
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